Simon Rosenberg is a long-term, data driven strategist.Below is his post yesterday on Hopium
⬇️
I sat down to look at the data we’ve seen this week and it’s actually fine, not scary. Here are some polls 538 added this week, Biden-Trump:
44%-42% GW/YouGov
47%-46% Split Ticket/Data For Progress
50%-50% Emerson College
46%-46% Washington Post (Harris leads Trump)
42%-43% Redfield & Wilton
42%-43% Bendixen and Amandi (Harris leads Trump)
41%-42% Big Village
42%-44% Morning Consult
And the Bloomberg/Morning Consult battleground poll released last weekend has Biden gaining 2, 46%-48% and ahead in MI and WI. The current 538 forecast has Biden at 270 today (MI, PA, WI and NE-2 is 270):
The problem I have with polls, and I have no statistical knowledge at all, is that with their questions --when you set one poll's results against another's-- you can't just compare apples with apples. They throw in oranges, grapes, cherries (often nicely picked) bananas, pears and kiwis. You often don't know the actual way of wording for the questions asked nor the priming that went on before a particular question was asked.
For example If the question is "do you support Biden" my answer is going to be "as a candidate, yes. For everything he does, no. I don't like his Gaza approach."
So does the pollster stick that in the "yes" or "no" column that everyone will see as the result of the poll? Hell if I know.
Thank you Liza! It’s important to read and reread his quotes! He makes sense! He is knowledgeable and articulate! He is not boastful and he is not dramatic! He is forthright and honest. He is the best person to beat Trump and he will! Democrats need to stand with him and promote him instead of undercutting him!
Thanks for saying this. I’ve been so upset by the press trying to tell us whom to vote for. It’s not their call, and reminds me so much of “but her emails” with Hillary.
Thank you so much for this summary. I’m solidly pro-Joe and appreciate info to share with other folks who don’t follow MSM. Additionally, any good examples for the dump-Biden-but who-can-replace- him-and-how-can-we-get-their-name-on-ballot-crowd (whew!) that can help them understand the reality of where we are at this point in time and we need to pull together and row in the same direction in a powerful way is a good and helpful example. We must win this election up and down the ballot.
Thank you! I was so busy in the afternoon looking at his schedule just before the event where Clooney said he "showed his age" that I just fell into bed after. Clooney's idea of what "simply being old" bears some looking at. Check out https://substack.com/home/post/p-146526431
I agree the Democrats have the expertise and their work is always unfinished because Republicans still fight the 1930’s New Deal. I just think the Dems need better messaging that speaks to everyone. It doesn’t always have to be accusatory. I have a friend who once sent me a link to an union ad that ran in Northern Indiana that played Joe Cockers singing the Beatles song “I get by with the help of my friends” and it showed firemen, police, nurses, teachers, ironworkers, etc. I loved that ad because it spoke to my generation. The Democrats have to find something like that.
How many young people in this country grew up on Fox News. How will the Dems counteract all the people who don’t deal with the facts such as Biden mentioned?
Great info!! As always Liza! And, yes, until at least after the election, we will be on egg shells every time he speaks. Thanks!
Amen 🙏
Except…aren’t there polls showing he can’t win? And the eggshell walk is now the only path?
The polls are worthless. Look elsewhere.
Simon Rosenberg is a long-term, data driven strategist.Below is his post yesterday on Hopium
⬇️
I sat down to look at the data we’ve seen this week and it’s actually fine, not scary. Here are some polls 538 added this week, Biden-Trump:
44%-42% GW/YouGov
47%-46% Split Ticket/Data For Progress
50%-50% Emerson College
46%-46% Washington Post (Harris leads Trump)
42%-43% Redfield & Wilton
42%-43% Bendixen and Amandi (Harris leads Trump)
41%-42% Big Village
42%-44% Morning Consult
And the Bloomberg/Morning Consult battleground poll released last weekend has Biden gaining 2, 46%-48% and ahead in MI and WI. The current 538 forecast has Biden at 270 today (MI, PA, WI and NE-2 is 270):
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/inflation-fell-in-june-joe-biden?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I don't know. I don't understand polls and don't trust them. I think the media is confusing the issue bigtime.
The problem I have with polls, and I have no statistical knowledge at all, is that with their questions --when you set one poll's results against another's-- you can't just compare apples with apples. They throw in oranges, grapes, cherries (often nicely picked) bananas, pears and kiwis. You often don't know the actual way of wording for the questions asked nor the priming that went on before a particular question was asked.
For example If the question is "do you support Biden" my answer is going to be "as a candidate, yes. For everything he does, no. I don't like his Gaza approach."
So does the pollster stick that in the "yes" or "no" column that everyone will see as the result of the poll? Hell if I know.
I appreciate this report.
Thank you Liza! It’s important to read and reread his quotes! He makes sense! He is knowledgeable and articulate! He is not boastful and he is not dramatic! He is forthright and honest. He is the best person to beat Trump and he will! Democrats need to stand with him and promote him instead of undercutting him!
Thanks for saying this. I’ve been so upset by the press trying to tell us whom to vote for. It’s not their call, and reminds me so much of “but her emails” with Hillary.
He is knowledgeable and articulate. He provided coherent explanations for complex situations on a diversity of topics.
The other guy can’t put one coherent, truthful sentence together. Read a transcript of any of his rants.
Glad that NYT finally said DT’s unfit.
I missed the press conference. Thanks for sharing! Go Joe Go!
That was great to read. Thank you.
Thank you so much for this summary. I’m solidly pro-Joe and appreciate info to share with other folks who don’t follow MSM. Additionally, any good examples for the dump-Biden-but who-can-replace- him-and-how-can-we-get-their-name-on-ballot-crowd (whew!) that can help them understand the reality of where we are at this point in time and we need to pull together and row in the same direction in a powerful way is a good and helpful example. We must win this election up and down the ballot.
Thank you!
And the really funny thing is nobody had to fix the transcription to make sense. It was verbatim.
Thank you! I was so busy in the afternoon looking at his schedule just before the event where Clooney said he "showed his age" that I just fell into bed after. Clooney's idea of what "simply being old" bears some looking at. Check out https://substack.com/home/post/p-146526431
It's a grueling schedule, but he still has his marbles to lead.
I agree the Democrats have the expertise and their work is always unfinished because Republicans still fight the 1930’s New Deal. I just think the Dems need better messaging that speaks to everyone. It doesn’t always have to be accusatory. I have a friend who once sent me a link to an union ad that ran in Northern Indiana that played Joe Cockers singing the Beatles song “I get by with the help of my friends” and it showed firemen, police, nurses, teachers, ironworkers, etc. I loved that ad because it spoke to my generation. The Democrats have to find something like that.
How many young people in this country grew up on Fox News. How will the Dems counteract all the people who don’t deal with the facts such as Biden mentioned?
Good points. It really is about succinct and crisp and clear and simple messaging!